Friday, September 21, 2018

Rating Hurricanes: Thoughts after Hurricane Florence

We have always rated hurricanes by their windspeed and the damage that wind inflicts on structures and infrastructure.  But perhaps it is time to reconsider?  I am quite sure the people looking at the weather models in the days leading up to the landfall of Florence understood this was going to be a MAJOR flood event.  They tried to tell us that it wasn't the wind but the water that would be life threatening.  Somehow it seems to have fallen on many deaf ears.  Why couldn't they get their message across?

In my opinion, it boils down to language barriers.  We rate hurricanes 1-5 and if you are in a hurricane prone area, you know how important it is to take a 5 seriously.  A level 5 hurricane can blow your house down, period, end of story.  A hurricane that is rated 1, meh... not so much.  If  wind was all we had to worry about with Florence, then who could blame the guy who chose to wait out the storm at home.  It was a big windstorm, but hurricane force windstorms happen all the time.  Here in the north, no one has ever told me to evacuate my house because we were expecting hurricane force winds.  You just stay inside and away from the risk of falling trees.  

The problem is, though Florence was a level one wind event is continues to be a level 5 water event.  Though the storm surges have passed,  it will take days to weeks for thirty inches of rain water to drain off of North Carolina (not to mention other areas) and back into the sea.  

Wouldn't it make sense to give hurricanes two separate ratings, one for expected wind damage and one for flood damage?  What could have been different if we gave people language for what was about to happen to them?  What would people have done if they had heard from weather reporters that Florence was expected to make landfall as a level 1 wind, level 5 water event with all major waterways being effected?  Would people inland have been more prepared?  

I'm not sure how to imagine what a level 5 water event would look like but I'm pretty sure if you gave language to weather reporters, they might start to create visual models to match predictions.  It's hard to imagine what thirty feet above flood stage looks like (yes, some rivers in North Carolina are really that high)  But, given the fodder to try, I'm sure news reporters would accomplish the task.  And perhaps with better language would come better preparations in the future. 

What do you think?




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